ClimateTech: it’s time to walk the talk!
What would you do if you had $1B to deploy for maximum Positive Climate Impact?
Time is of the essence! I’ve just returned from the ChangeNow event in Paris that presented several innovations, initiatives and “solutions for the planet”. The consensus among participants is clear: we are in dire need of science, technology, and committed individuals to stabilize our climate and preserve our planet for future generations.
Yet, several initiatives were limited in scope, lacked ambition, and were culturally too tainted. Only a handful of initiatives embraced a comprehensive, global approach that required massive scale.
Why is this crucial? you might wonder. Why can’t we simply focus on local initiatives without considering the broader global context? Well, science has already provided us with several answers: rising temperatures are a global phenomenon; the melting of polar ice caps are well studied and proven by field observations and satellite imagery; changing weather patterns leading to heatwaves, droughts, floods and storms are better understood than ever with new scientific models; ocean acidification and its related impacts are now well-established; and species migration and extinctions are happening at a global scale not at a local scale.
What is the scale of climate change? How big is our footprint?
Before we delve deeper, let’s restate some crucial facts from Vaclac Smil’s groundbreaking book, ‘How the World Really Works: A Scientist’s Guide to Our Past, Present and Future’. I have been looking for a common nomenclature grasping the complexity of our world. I found partial answers in the latest regulation attempts by EFRAG/CSRD, but I was missing a framework for understanding where we should direct our time, capital, and energy…the facts presented in the book provided that framework.
Our society, or rather our civilization, relies on a staggering 12 billion tons a year of fossil fuel and coal each year (and that’s not even mentioning natural gas!).
According to the International Energy Agency’s Stated Policies Scenario, fossil fuels are projected to decline from 80 percent of global demand in 2019 to 72 percent by 2040…a mere 8 percent…8! Not 80, 8!
Even their most optimistic decarbonization scenario, the Sustainable Development Scenario, anticipates fossil fuels supplying 56 percent of global energy demand by 2040. This makes it highly improbable to eliminate this high share within a single decade; as a matter of fact the Net Zero by 2050 scenario includes projections clearly illustrating that the Paris Agreement objective to reduce emissions by 55% compared to 1990 emissions is not possible…we are going to get hot!
The alarming truth is that we will likely continue emitting CO2 into the atmosphere for several more decades. The problem lies in the fact that CO2 remains in the atmosphere for anywhere from 300 to 1000 years, exacerbating the global temperature increase. Let’s not forget that as we focus on CO2, we also contribute to the release of methane, which has an even more detrimental impact on global temperatures (it is speculated that methane alone is responsible for 30% of the rise of global emissions). The fact that we are converting all emissions of GreenHouse Gases (GHG) in equivalent CO2 to reflect the Global Warming Potential is making us forget that not all emissions need to be treated equal.
The extraction of energy fuels — pun intended — what Vaclav Smil aptly refers to as the four pillars of our civilization: cement, steel, plastics, and ammonia,that all continue to expand rapidly. Steel production has nearly tripled in 40 years, cement production has increased almost sixfold in the same period, ammonia synthesis has risen nearly three times, and plastic output has soared more than 6.5 times higher. This relentless growth only intensifies our energy demands.
The projected demand for primary resources required to meet our energy needs is astounding. From 2020 to 2050, the demand for lithium is expected to grow by a factor of 18–20, cobalt by 17–19, nickel by 28–31, and most other materials by factors of 15–20.
We are all rushing towards a wall; change is imperative. Our planet is finite, and our needs for resources we currently rely on are enormous and as discussed above it won’t stop tomorrow…our economy is growing currently with those resources extraction
Should we grow?
“The progress of the human mind is the progress towards freedom.”
— Jean-Jacques Rousseau
Philosophers, such as Spinoza or Rousseau, helped us understand that as human beings, we are moved by an inherent drive for self-realization, expanding our knowledge and understanding in the pursuit for growth and continuous improvement, if we don’t we shrink. Economy is simply a human-designed system with nothing natural in it, driven by the same principles as human beings and thus requires growth.
Economic growth is an enabler for societal development. History has provided us with countless stark examples on how lack of growth provokes a downfall. Economic decline is usually another side of the coin of political instability, which leads to complete collapse of societies. Economic decline was certainly an important part of the collapse of the Republic of Genoa, the Mayan cities, the Roman Empire, the Soviet Union or even closer to us help us explain the crazy inflation in Venezuela.
We cannot stop the growth engine and economic development is obviously linked to societal improvements, and let’s not forget that we cannot deny the Global Majority the right to economic development. The point is not about growth but rather,how can we continue economic growth without depleting finite resources and neglecting the well-being of other living creatures, including our fellow human beings? There is obviously work to be done on how economic growth is measured and objectivised, but the crux of the matter is that we need actions now and not debates.
Given the urgency and scale of the challenges in front of us, we must adopt a holistic and realistic approach. We’re talking about megatons of emissions, terawatt hours of energy production, millions of tons of wasted food, and millions of cubic meters of discarded water.
It’s time to believe in our capabilities. Most of the technologies already exist, they just need better deployment models, better business models. We must invest massively in Carbon Capture technologies, Nuclear Fusion, Green Ammonia, combat the spread of plastic, reduce food waste, and address global meat consumption head-on.
Moreover, we need willingness and leadership more than new technologies. Remember, NASA put people on the moon with far less computing power than an iPhone.
Where should we walk?
Fortunately, some leaders and companies have recognized this urgency, such as Svante or ClimeWorks. Let’s make sure that we don’t ignore the potential of Artificial Intelligence, which will revolutionize healthcare systems, the way we work, and how we live…A.I. will fundamentally impact every aspect of our lives. Can we think today about solutions to help us develop a more sustainable world without A.I.? No!
It’s time to stop debating philosophical models, economic ideas and writing books on how humanity can change to save ourselves. We need action, now!
We must act swiftly, and success hinges on dispelling myths and misinformation. Transitioning to non-carbon energies could indeed replace fossil carbon entirely within one to three decades, but ONLY if we are willing to make substantial sacrifices in the standard of living across affluent nations and deny developing nations in Asia and Africa the chance to improve their collective well-being, even by a fraction of what China has achieved since 1980. Morally, this is dubious. Realistically, this won’t happen.
Let’s acknowledge what truly matters: information, human connections, art, and education truly matters. On the other hand, targeted advertising and the latest electronic gadgets are not.
So here’s my approach: let’s document and collect data to understand the scale of the problem industry per industry and focus our actions on the most pressing issues. That is the work I have been pushing for 3 years at Beyond Builders: we get inspired by companies such as Patagonia or Interface and equip our partners and customers with tools to collect data, get a 360 degree view of their environmental and social impacts through impact dashboards and take actions to reduce the negative impacts while develop new business models to increase their positive impacts.
Such actions lead to upgrading their internal way of working by reusing water more efficiently (80%), changing or developing their business models by offering new services or targeting new industries for instance developing new segments of customers when your technology can be an enabler for fighting climate change whereas it has never been a strong focus of your organization. This is what I experienced with our engagements.
Let’s embrace data and information to document industry by industry the impacts of those industries, create a collective registry of scientific information about what can be done today, what still needs to be researched on and what needs to be deployed at scale.
We lack clarity on what the problems truly are, what the solutions can be and what their real costs and impacts are.
We cannot afford to waste any more time. The clock is ticking (but it is not new), and our collective future on a liveable planet rests in our hands. Let’s act now!
So where would you invest?
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